SportCalc.

Race Time Predictor

Enter a recent race result and target distance to estimate your finish time using the proven Riegel formula.

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How to use the race time predictor

  1. Enter the distance and finish time of a recent race.
  2. Choose the target distance you want to predict.
  3. Click Predict to estimate your finish time.

Why pace slows over longer distances

The Riegel exponent of 1.06 captures the physiological reality that you cannot hold 5K pace for a marathon. Endurance, fueling, and fatigue resistance all matter more as distance increases, which is why longer predictions assume adequate training.

Frequently asked questions

How accurate is a race time predictor?

Predictions are most accurate when the goal distance is close to your recent race and you have the endurance base to match. Predicting a marathon from a 5K tends to be optimistic without long-run training.

What formula does this predictor use?

It uses Pete Riegel's formula: T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)^1.06, which models how pace slows as distance grows.

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